Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.054285 0.061950 0.070554 0.080976 0.093320 0.107548 0.125300
2025-12-07 0.043763 0.053423 0.065203 0.080788 0.101114 0.127069 0.163288
2025-12-14 0.035204 0.045448 0.058841 0.077971 0.105163 0.143327 0.202614
2025-12-21 0.027486 0.037160 0.050565 0.071009 0.102352 0.150266 0.232577
2025-12-28 0.023434 0.033159 0.047436 0.070716 0.109344 0.174087 0.298520
2026-01-04 0.020581 0.030402 0.045642 0.072172 0.119829 0.207677 0.398182
2026-01-11 0.018003 0.027638 0.043358 0.072426 0.128718 0.242583 0.521737
2026-01-18 0.015857 0.025215 0.041207 0.072510 0.137686 0.282265 0.684736
2026-01-25 0.013784 0.022588 0.038248 0.070471 0.142078 0.315056 0.859236
2026-02-01 0.011893 0.019995 0.034910 0.066969 0.142459 0.339572 1.036032
2026-02-08 0.010714 0.018515 0.033415 0.067011 0.151403 0.392328 1.370348
2026-02-15 0.009734 0.017262 0.032153 0.067308 0.161414 0.455430 1.838028
2026-02-22 0.008948 0.016294 0.031368 0.068724 0.175809 0.545632 2.611047
2026-03-01 0.008225 0.015349 0.030471 0.069702 0.189841 0.648239 3.716757
2026-03-08 0.007426 0.014137 0.028784 0.068258 0.196096 0.728208 4.938360
2026-03-15 0.006493 0.012526 0.025935 0.063008 0.187723 0.739234 5.668178
2026-03-22 0.006013 0.011829 0.025122 0.063323 0.199611 0.862871 8.123873
2026-03-29 0.005663 0.011374 0.024814 0.065084 0.218291 1.049183 12.684150
2026-04-05 0.005292 0.010824 0.024182 0.065714 0.233223 1.238817 19.306793
2026-04-12 0.004951 0.010298 0.023526 0.066127 0.247913 1.455607 29.857548
2026-04-19 0.004565 0.009621 0.022367 0.064574 0.253017 1.614273 42.316163
2026-04-26 0.004168 0.008873 0.020909 0.061634 0.250062 1.706335 55.262173
2026-05-03 0.003926 0.008478 0.020364 0.061847 0.263968 1.991297 90.636846